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Home » Business

Netflix – the best stock to buy?

Submitted by on Tuesday, 10 March 20093 Comments

netflix-3month-stockprice

The share market is down, Google’s stock aren’t performing like they once did, and the same goes for many other tech companies.

But one in particular seems to be doing alright – Netflix (NFLX).

Since Dec 08, most stock indices have fallen 20% (look at S&P and NASDAQ in above graph). However, if you look at performance of Netflix’s stock price, it stays straight on top – in fact, it grew 50%.

How did they do it? Is it just the best time for their sales to grown? 

Let’s first talk about who and what Netflix does. Back in 1998, founder and CEO, Reed Hasting had an overdue “Apollo 13″ cassette (yes, I said cassette!!). He owed the video rental store $40 for late payment as he had also misplaced the cassette. As he walked to the gym, Reed realised that a gym has a much better model. You pay $x a month, but the gym doesn’t care how much or how less you use their facilities.

He then took that model online for the video rental business and called it Netflix. Based on your subscription with Netflix (usually a flat monthly fee), you create a rental queue. Netflix will mail you the first DVD along with a prepaid envelope. When you’re done with the DVD, you mail it back in the prepaid envelope and they send you the next movie from your queue. Some subscription models allow up to multiple DVDs at time and some with a limit of exchanges per month.

Given this time of economic downturn, most people prefer to have a budget monthly expense with no more or less to pay. A fixed price of US$8.99 per month to have 1 DVD at a time with no exchange limit is a great way to save costs. Saves taking the whole family out to the movies – not to forget those ridiculously priced popcorn and coke.

So, over time subscribers have dramatically grown, and hence their stock climbs further.

Question is – how long will it take for major video rentals stores to move to the same model? 

In Australia, Telstra’s Big Pond Movies seem to have a similar model in place – ranging from AUD9.95 to AUD29.95 per month. 

Not bad Telstra, but I wonder how many subscribers you’ve got – and whether your stock price can jump 50%?


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  • 3 Comments »

    • Netflix - the best stock to buy? | Vicky Lalwani said:

      [...] the original post:  Netflix – the best stock to buy? | Vicky Lalwani  Mail this [...]

    • Margarida Fantini said:

      Hey Vicky…. I’m a Telstra Bigpond Movies subscriber. I compare these services to Foxtel and it is much cheaper than PayTV… plus you can watch what you want and when you want! I’m paying $20 a month for up to 10 DVD’s. QuickFlix is the largest in Australia though. You might want to check their stocks. They plan to double their subscriber base this year… one to watch!

    • Vicky Lalwani (author) said:

      Hi Margs… just took a look at QFX (Quickflix) and their stock price back in Aug 08 was AUD 0.052 and is now AUD 0.02

      However in the grand scheme of things Quickflix have a much smaller audience (Australia) compared to NetFlix.

      But now that NetFlix has taken it’s model online (i.e. over the internet video streaming) it has the potential to approach a worldwide market (subject to licensing).

      If I were Quickflix, I would be jumping up to get exclusivity for Australia – take their model online and battle with Foxtel over a similar subscription model to Netflix.

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